An expectation operator for belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer theory*

ABSTRACT

The main contribution of this paper is a new definition of expected value of belief functions in the Dempster–Shafer (D–S) theory of evidence. Our definition shares many of the properties of the expectation operator in probability theory. Also, for Bayesian belief functions, our definition provides the same expected value as the probabilistic expectation operator. A traditional method of computing expected of real-valued functions is to first transform a D–S belief function to a corresponding probability mass function, and then use the expectation operator for probability mass functions. Transforming a belief function to a probability function involves loss of information. Our expectation operator works directly with D–S belief functions. Another definition is using Choquet integration, which assumes belief functions are credal sets, i.e. convex sets of probability mass functions. Credal sets semantics are incompatible with Dempster's combination rule, the center-piece of the D–S theory. In general, our definition provides different expected values than, e.g. if we use probabilistic expectation using the pignistic transform or the plausibility transform of a belief function. Using our definition of expectation, we provide new definitions of variance, covariance, correlation, and other higher moments and describe their properties.     

改进Elman神经网络在短期热负荷预测中的应用

热电厂的短期热负荷预测在城市集中供暖中起着至关重要的作用,直接影响热电厂的经济效益和热能利用率。电厂的短期热负荷一般采用神经网络预测模型进行预测,而BP神经网络应用最为广泛。Elman神经网络算法在BP神经网络基础上加入了承接层,作为一步延时算子,实现记忆能力,使系统具备适应时变能力,增强系统全局稳定性。但Elman神经网络算法模型的构造依然需要大量样本的支撑,而且输入层的变量多,导致预测时间依然很长,收敛速度慢。该文在Elman神经网络预测前,进行了相关系数预处理和对样本中异常值的平均化预处理,通过数据归一化运算,使Elman神经网络输入层变量大幅减少。仿真实验表明,改进的Elman神经网络算法使预测模型快速寻优,减少预测时间的同时明显提高预测精度。     

New empirical correlation for estimation of vaporization enthalpy of algerian saharan blend petroleum fractions

A Real-coded Genetic Algorithm has been used to develop a new correlation to estimate the enthalpy of vaporization for pure compounds and petroleum fractions as a function of the normal boiling point and specific gravity. In developing the correlation 80% of the data was used and the remaining are used for validation. The results of the proposed correlations are compared to others in literature. The comparison indicates that the proposed model is simple to use and more accurate than the most common correlations for predicting the enthalpy of vaporization of pure compounds and petroleum fractions.     

基于DoG检测图像特征点的快速二进制描述子

针对SIFT描述子实时性差和传统二进制描述子对尺度、旋转和视角变化鲁棒性差的问题,本文通过优化采样模式和添加灰度差分不变量比较测试进行改进,提出了一种鲁棒性更高的二进制描述子。首先,设计了一种尺度关联、编号标记的采样模式;然后,旋转采样模式中各采样点到特定位置,确保描述子尺度、旋转不变性;接着,分析了采样点点对模式对描述子的影响,选择使用机器学习训练后的128对采样点对;最后,选择灰度值比较测试及梯度绝对值和比较测试构建二进制描述子。实验中采用DoG检测图像关键点,结果表明:本文提出的描述子在描述子构建和描述子匹配上比SIFT描述子分别快84%和67%;在有视角变化的图像匹配上,准确率比传统的二进制描述子高3%~5%,召回率平均要高30%以上。本文提出的特征点描述方法适用于时间要求高的图像匹配领域。     

In‐plane shear damage behaviours of 2D needled C/SiC composites

Understanding the in‐plane shear behaviour of composites is essential to establish the design basis for practical applications. This study aims to investigate the shear damage behaviours of 2D needled C/SiC composites by various characterization techniques. The effect of layer arrangement on shear modulus and strength was discussed via shear stress‐strain responses. The shear strain field evolution and uniformity variation were studied by digital image correlation. It shows that the uniformity of shear strain field changes with the shear load, and the shear strain field evolution consist of 5 stages. The electrical resistivity measurement results indicate that structural deformation and damage evolution caused the electrical resistivity change. Furthermore, the damage evolution has a double effect on the electrical resistivity variation. The acoustic emission monitoring shows that the shear damage evolution is a 3‐stage nonlinear process before failure. The shear damages were categorized via acoustic characteristics. Besides, the postfailure behaviours were also discussed in this study.     

A deep neural network based classifier for brain tumor diagnosis

Classification process plays a key role in diagnosing brain tumors. Earlier research works are intended for identifying brain tumors using different classification techniques. However, the False Alarm Rates (FARs) of existing classification techniques are high. To improve the early-stage brain tumor diagnosis via classification the Weighted Correlation Feature Selection Based Iterative Bayesian Multivariate Deep Neural Learning (WCFS-IBMDNL) technique is proposed in this work. The WCFS-IBMDNL algorithm considers medical dataset for classifying the brain tumor diagnosis at an early stage. At first, the WCFS-IBMDNL technique performs Weighted Correlation-Based Feature Selection (WC-FS) by selecting subsets of medical features that are relevant for classification of brain tumors. After completing the feature selection process, the WCFS-IBMDNL technique uses Iterative Bayesian Multivariate Deep Neural Network (IBMDNN) classifier for reducing the misclassification error rate of brain tumor identification. The WCFS-IBMDNL technique was evaluated in JAVA language using Disease Diagnosis Rate (DDR), Disease Diagnosis Time (DDT), and FAR parameter through the epileptic seizure recognition dataset.     

Individual-based multi-objective optimal structured treatment interruption for HIV infection

In this paper, based on the measurable quantities from an individual patient that has infection to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and his/her condition is near to acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), individual-based multi-objective optimal treatments have been proposed. Firstly, the most effective parameters of the patient in computing Long-term non-progressor (LTNP) equilibrium are derived using global sensitivity analysis (GSA). To accomplish GSA effectively, Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) and partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) are utilized to rank each of the parameters based on each state of the 5-dimensional model. Then, these results are used by Dempster–Shafer (D–S) evidence theory (DSET) to rank the most effective parameters comprehensively. Now, these effective identified parameters are estimated using extended Kalman filter (EKF), which its covariance matrices are optimized based on particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm. Thus, the proposed methodology gives a calibrated model corresponding to the individual patient. Based on this calibrated model, the LTNP equilibrium related to the individual patient is derived. Using the derived individual-based LTNP equilibrium optimal structured treatment interruption (STI) strategies are extracted by defining suitable multi-objective optimization problem and solving it through using non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II). The results demonstrate that the proposed optimal treatments are able to effectively reach LTNP equilibrium with using the minimum and maximum drug usage of 3.6% and 35.1% of full drug usage treatment. Meanwhile, the different optimal treatments give the decision-makers enough flexibility to choose the suitable treatment based on existing facilities and necessities.     

An improved machine learning technique based on downsized KPCA for Alzheimer's disease classification

Alzheimer's disease (AD), a neurodegenerative disorder, is a very serious illness that cannot be cured, but the early diagnosis allows precautionary measures to be taken. The current used methods to detect Alzheimer's disease are based on tests of cognitive impairment, which does not provide an exact diagnosis before the patient passes a moderate stage of AD. In this article, a novel classifier of brain magnetic resonance images (MRI) based on the new downsized kernel principal component analysis (DKPCA) and multiclass support vector machine (SVM) is proposed. The suggested scheme classifies AD MRIs. First, a multiobjective optimization technique is used to determine the optimal parameter of the kernel function in order to ensure good classification results and to minimize the number of retained principle components simultaneously. The optimal parameter is used to build the optimized DKPCA model. Second, DKPCA is applied to normalized features. Downsized features are then fed to the classifier to output the prediction. To validate the effectiveness of the proposed method, DKPCA was tested using synthetic data to demonstrate its efficiency on dimensionality reduction, then the DKPCA based technique was tested on the OASIS MRI database and the results were satisfactory compared to conventional approaches.